The Hidden Numbers That Predict Startup Success

Why most founders track the wrong metrics, and the 6 numbers that predict whether your startup will live or die.

Photo by Justin Little on Unsplash

Every startup founder obsesses over metrics. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: most of us are tracking the wrong numbers.

We get seduced by vanity metrics, distracted by competitor comparisons, and lost in a sea of data that doesn’t predict success.

After analyzing data from pre-revenue startups through Y Combinator and other major accelerators, a clear pattern emerges. There are really only six metrics that matter in the earliest stages — and they’re probably not the ones you’re tracking.

The Problem with Traditional Metrics

Before we dive into what you should be measuring, let’s talk about why traditional metrics fail pre-revenue startups:

• Revenue doesn’t exist yet
• User numbers are too small to be statistically significant
• Growth rates are volatile and unreliable
• Customer acquisition costs are still being figured out

The numbers that matter in the earliest stages are often the ones that don’t look like traditional business…